Matchup Preview: Purdue at Nebraska

Purdue at Nebraska, from a matchup perspective.

Time: Saturday, October 28, 3:30 E.T.

Location: Memorial Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 85,458 (sold out)

2023 schedules/records:  Purdue 2-5 (1-3 Big Ten), Nebraska 4-3 (2-2 Big Ten)

Series Notes: Purdue will aim to keep the good times rolling against Nebraska when it heads to Lincoln. The Boilermakers hold a 6-5 all-time series lead, but they have won four of the previous five meetings, including last season’s high-scoring affair in West Lafayette. In each of Purdue’s previous two trips to Lincoln, the flight home has been cheerful, as Purdue took down Nebraska in Scott Frost’s debut 2018 season and capitalized on several Cornhusker turnovers in 2021 to take the victory. This will mark the final meeting as members of the Big Ten West, which allowed Purdue and Nebraska to play annually from 2014-2023.

TV: FS1 (PxP Jeff Levering, Analyst Mark Helfrich)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Kelly Kitchel, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Nebraska -1, O/U 43.5

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Nebraska Roster | Nebraska Game Notes (to come hopefully)

Nebraska running game versus Purdue against the run

The Cornhuskers lead the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 234 yards per game on the ground due to their run-heavy approach. Despite losing two of the top three running backs to injury, Nebraska’s trio of Anthony Grant, Emmett Johnson and Josh Fleeks does the job. Grant, a veteran, leads the running back room with 70 carries on the season. Johnson and Fleeks are newer to the scene, but Johnson averages over five yards per carry and Fleeks ripped off a 74-yard touchdown run earlier this season.

Nebraska’s program has featured running quarterbacks in various fashions in recent years, and this year is no exception. The season began with run-heavy Jeff Sims before Heinrich Haarberg took over the job. Despite struggling through the air, Haarberg leads the Cornhuskers with 60.6 yards per game on the ground, with 85 carries and four rushing touchdowns. Should a quarterback change occur, the offensive scheme can stay the same, as Haarberg and Sims possess similar skill sets. On a cold Nebraska afternoon, expect the ‘Huskers to run the ball early and often.

Purdue enters the final week of October in 10th place in the conference in rushing defense, allowing 153 yards per game. Recent weeks, however, don’t help the average, as the Boilermakers have surrendered 149 yards or more in each of the last five games. Purdue would like to create more tackles for loss, something a fully healthy OC Brothers could help with coming off the bye week. Helping Purdue’s cause has been healthy on the defensive line, as continuity up front has allowed younger players to develop behind the scenes.

Nebraska passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Fitting in with the rest of the Big Ten West, Nebraska struggles mightily to throw the ball. After Sims threw four interceptions in 34 attempts to start the year, replacing him with Haarberg seemed like a move that could help boost the passing game. However, Haarberg completes just 51% of his passes and averages a mere 102 yards per game through the air.

The injury bug in the wide receiver room has yet to help the quarterbacks much, as four of the top five receivers entering fall camp will miss Saturday’s game against the Boilermakers. Now, the depletion of the wide receiver room forces two true freshmen to slot into the starting lineup on Saturday. Making matters worse for Nebraska, three starting offensive linemen will miss the Purdue game. The left tackle and left guard have season-ending injuries, while the starting right guard is out for a few weeks.

Purdue’s pass defense enters this one ranking last in the conference, surrendering 241 yards per game through the air. Much has been made of Ryan Walters’ emphasis on man-to-man coverage, asking quite a bit from a young, inexperienced cornerback group. Top corner Marquis Wilson will miss the remainder of the season, so Purdue will turn to true freshman Derrick Rogers Jr. again for his second-career start. The pass rush has created some big plays, as Purdue sits tied for third in the league with 21 sacks. Even though the Boilermakers’ struggles against the pass have persisted all season, it should create some pressure against Nebraska’s limited offensive line.

Purdue running game versus Nebraska against the run

Running back Devin Mockobee notched his first 100-yard game of the season against Ohio State, his first triple-digit performance of the season. After an early season stretch of fumble problems, Mockobee’s last two games look like the running back who nearly reached 1,000 yards as a walk-on redshirt freshman last fall. Tyrone Tracy should rejoin him in the backfield this week after missing a game-and-a-half with a groin injury. Tracy’s explosiveness has been a story of Purdue’s offense early on, as he averages just under six yards per rush.

In an ideal world, Purdue would see Hudson Card run with the football more than he has thus far. He’s an athletic guy whose speed can make a difference in the offense, but with concerns behind him on the depth chart and lingering injuries, he’s run the ball a little in recent weeks. After a week off to recover and return to full health, will we see No. 1 on designed keepers or look to escape by tucking and running?

The Nebraska defense holds opponents to just 76.6 yards per game on the ground, good for fourth nationally. As Matt Rhule hopes to return the defense to the “Blackshirt” days of old, he’s seen great success in the run defense by utilizing coordinator Tony White’s 3-3-5 personnel deployment. The Cornhuskers don’t necessarily rack up tons of tackles for loss, but they stifle opposing rushing attacks. Nebraska’s defense is at its best when it can commit just six players to the box and still stop the run game. An area to monitor? Purdue’s health on the offensive line. The Boilermakers will need Mahamane Moussa to return to the lineup to avoid starting two backup tackles in a hostile road environment.

Purdue passing game versus Nebraska against the pass

Through seven games, results for Hudson Card remain a mixed bag. In recent weeks, lingering injuries have limited his capabilities, but he could hold the title of “best quarterback in the Big Ten West.” He’s averaging 231 yards per game with more touchdowns than interceptions, but can he show off some of the upside that drew coaches to proclaim him as the top quarterback in the transfer portal last winter?

The lack of playmakers at wide receiver has been a frequent topic of conversation around this year’s team. Still, we did see more rotation at wideout against Ohio State in Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen’s absence. Yaseen, who remains in question for this week’s game, was replaced by Jayden Dixon-Veal, but Mershawn Rice, Jaron Tibbs and Elijah Canion also saw action. Purdue could use all the help it can get on the outside, as the injuries on the offensive line do not help matters.

Though the Husker defense is elite against the run, it’s far more mediocre against the pass, allowing 237 yards per game in the Big Ten West. In seven games, Nebraska has intercepted just three passes and recorded only 14 sacks. They do start some veterans on the back end, including Malcolm Hartzog, but they’d like to shore up some of the issues in coverage. Nebraska is getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball, which should help the pass defense, and the Cornhuskers will hope for immediate impact there on Saturday.

Special teams

The special teams woes continued for Purdue in its loss to Ohio State. Placekicker Julio Macias missed all three of his field goal tries, bringing Purdue’s season total to just three-for-nine on field goal attempts. Ben Freehill could return from injury this week, but he’s just one-for-three on the year. Jack Ansell’s inconsistency continues to limit the punt game, as his average now sits below 40 yards per punt attempt.

The return of Tyrone Tracy figures to boost the kick return game, as he remains the only player to return a kickoff for a touchdown since 2013, and Purdue does average a respectable 11 yards per punt return on the season.

Nebraska kicker Tristan Alvano enters just four-of-eight on field goal attempts, and punter Brian Buschini only gets 41 yards of distance per punt, but the special teams unit is still improved from the Scott Frost era where it made a rash of costly mistakes. Both teams will hope to find more consistency in the kicking game as the season winds down, and with temperatures in the 40s expected, distance could be a huge question on Saturday.

Intangibles

Both teams feature first-year head coaches, but the two could not be more different besides that. Walters had never been a head coach prior to accepting the Purdue job, while Nebraska’s Matt Rhule brought success to Temple and Baylor before a stint with the Carolina Panthers. Through seven games, Rhule’s team has won more games. The Cornhuskers need just two more wins to earn bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016, a stat that’s almost impossible to believe. The always-loyal Nebraska crowd is hungry for any taste of success, so it should be a hostile environment for Purdue to walk into on Saturday.

The first seven games didn’t go as Purdue hoped, but the final five games represent a bit of a new opportunity. With four very winnable opportunities, a bowl game remains on the table for Purdue. It’ll require a win at Nebraska to get there, making this a virtual must-win game for Purdue’s postseason hopes with a trip to Michigan on deck. Coming off a bye week figures to greatly help Purdue, as it needed to get healthier. Can some re-energized players pull off a nice road win?

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