Alabama Football: Four players to watch vs. Texas

Alabama continues on with its season this Saturday with another home game. This week, the opponent is a Texas squad under head coach Steve Sarkisian that currently ranks No. 11, according to the latest AP Poll. In other words, this is expected to be one of the toughest matchups on the schedule in 2023.

According to VegasInsider, Alabama’s currently a 7-point favorite over the Longhorns. Those betting lines don’t mean anything once the game gets underway though. If the Crimson Tide wants to walk away victorious, they’ll need big-time performances from the four players that we’ve included on the list below.

No. 1 – DB Terrion Arnold

Really, this spot could go to a number of different players in Alabama’s secondary. Texas is bringing in a loaded offense that’s filled with capable pass-catching options for quarterback Quinn Ewers.

I’ll put it to you this way… last year, Isaiah Neyor was expected to be one of the better wide receiver options in college football after transferring in from Wyoming. He was coming off a season in which he totaled 878 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns for the Cowboys. Unfortunately, he torn his ACL early in the year and didn’t play a single snap in 2022. Now, he’s back healthy, but he isn’t even amongst the top five options at his position right now.

• Xavier Worthy (6-1, 172)
• A.D. Mitchell (6-4, 196)
• Jordan Whittington (6-1, 204)
• Johntay Cook (6-0, 186)
• Casey Cain (6-3, 197)
• Isaiah Neyor (6-3, 215)

So, you’ve got a great combination of size and explosiveness from one of the deepest position groups in college football. Worthy is obviously the No. 1 guy as far as target share and vertical, field-stretching ability. Mitchell is a also big-bodied, big-play option, but Worthy is the one who makes this offense go under Sarkisian. In a lot of ways, he’s similar to former Alabama receivers such as Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith.

As of Wednesday, we still don’t know where Arnold is going to lineup this weekend. If Malachi Moore isn’t available, it’s possible Arnold slides inside to Star with Trey Amos replacing him out on the perimeter. Even if it’s only Jaylen Key who misses the game, it’s still possible Moore moves back to safety with those other two guys (Arnold and Amos) also making moves. I guess that doesn’t really matter as far as Arnold’s importance though, mostly because Texas likes to move Worthy around.

Last week, he played 56 snaps against Rice.

Of those, 11 came in the slot with the other 45 coming on the outside. In 2022, he spent 17.1% of his snaps in the slot. Here’s the thing though… 29 of his 45 snaps outside last week came on the right side of the formation. That’s almost a 65-35% split between the right and left sides. And for those who don’t know, an opposing offense’s right wide receiver will go against Alabama’s left cornerback. Who’s slated to start there? You guessed it… Terrion Arnold.

Even if Arnold plays inside at Star, he’s still going to see quite a bit of Worthy.

I’d imagine that Texas would like to avoid throwing to Kool-Aid McKinstry‘s side of the field as much as possible. So, do you see how all of this is setting up for Arnold to play a critical role in Saturday’s outcome? I expect him to play well, but don’t be surprised if he gives up a few plays. Worthy’s a high-caliber NFL talent who’s going to win his fair share of battles, regardless of who’s lining up against him. Alabama just needs Arnold — or whoever’s covering him — to limit that success.

Worthy brings plenty of vertical, field-stretching ability. He showed that last year against Alabama went he beat defenders deep on multiple occasions. The now junior can win at all three levels of the field though, mostly because he’s an effective route-runner. If I’m the Crimson Tide, I’m trying to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage. That can affect his timing and ability to get into his route. Arnold did a pretty good job against him last year.

Worthy vs. Alabama’s defensive backs:

Khyree Jackson: 2 targets/2 catches, 68 yds

McKinstry: 2 targets/1 catch, 15 yds

DeMarrco Hellams: 1 target/1 catch, 8 yds

Jordan Battle: 1 target/1 catch, 6 yds

Brian Branch: 1 target/0 catches

Terrion Arnold: 2 targets/0 catches

Of course, that’s a small sample size, and it was when Ewers had already been forced out of the game due to an injury. This year will likely play out a little differently, so Arnold needs to be ready to play his best on Saturday. Really, the entire secondary needs to bring its “A” game. Despite injuries to Moore, Key and DeVonta Smith, the unit isn’t lacking talent. Hopefully, Moore and Key are able to get back onto the field for this weekend’s showdown though.

No. 2 – OL Seth McLaughlin

Texas has built a roster capable of moving to the SEC.

In fact, Alabama fans should already be viewing Saturday’s game as a conference matchup. It’s likely to have that sorta physicality to it. This means trench play is going to be even more critical to the outcome. With the help of other former Alabama assistants such as Bo Davis and Kyle Flood, Sarkisian has done a nice job of building the kinda fronts that can actually win in these types of contests. Or at least that’s the way it looks on paper.

The Longhorns use three main interior guys: T’Vondre Sweat (6-4, 362), Byron Murphy (6-1, 308) and Alfred Collins (6-5, 317). There are others, but those are the ones you should focus on. Those three average 329 pounds, too. The interior of Alabama’s offensive line will have its hands full. UA must force Texas to add numbers in the box in order to stop the run. If Texas is able to slow down the run by only committing minimal numbers, it’s going to be a major problem for quarterback Jalen Milroe and the Tide.

Obviously, that makes McLaughlin an important watch in this game. But to take his importance a step futher, he’s also more of a focus due to ongoing snap issues against MTSU. We’ve seen this problem from him in the past, and it doesn’t seem to be resolved. That can effect the timing and rhythm of your offense, which can’t happen in a crucial game such as this one. Hopefully, these concerns will be alleviated through his play, but I need to see it.

Freshman Kadyn Proctor is another one to keep an eye on. Texas has a couple of exterior pass rushers that can cause issues for the former five-star recruit. Barryn Sorrell is back after leading the Longhorns in sacks a season ago with 5.5. I think sophomore Ethan Burke is the more concerning edge though. Last week, he had 1.5 sacks with three total pressures. At 6-6, 257 pounds, his length and advanced technique remind me a little of former Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson.

Proctor will need to be careful.

At the same time, I think the Alabama tackle can be equally as problematic for Burke when it comes to the run game. Burke has seemingly made improvement in that area between Year 1 to Year 2, but Proctor outweighs him by over 100 pounds. This should be an underrated battle to watch. Burke played 18 snaps last week with 11 of those at right end. If those percentages hold in this game, he’ll match up with Proctor a lot.

No. 3 – LB Dontae Lawson

Lawson already feels like he’s become one of the best linebackers in the SEC. If he continues on his current trajectory, however, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility that he emerges as one of the best linebackers in college football. Last week against MTSU, the third-year defender was all over the place. Not only does he provide true sideline-to-sideline range with run and hit ability, but he can also get guys covered in the passing game.

Alabama’s going to need that on Saturday against Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders.

Last year, the 6-foot-4, 243-pound specimen finished second on the team in receptions (54) and touchdown catches (5) while also finishing third in receiving yardage (613). He’s a real mismatch problem in the passing game. In the first matchup, the Crimson Tide elected to use a committee approach to covering him. I expect it to be more of the same this time around, but Lawson will likely play a big role on that front.

Not only that, but he’ll also be an important piece in trying to force Texas to be one dimensional. In both of Alabama’s losses last season, the defense was unable to put the burden of winning the game exclusively on the quarterback’s arm. Tennessee’s run game had plenty of success, whether that be through its running backs or Hendon Hooker. LSU didn’t elect to run much with its backs (only 13 carries combined), but the unit averaged 6.7 yards per carry while Jayden Daniels ran for close to 100 yards and a touchdown.

Ewers doesn’t bring the mobility as a Hooker or Daniels, so Alabama won’t have to worry about the quarterback being a rushing threat. Still, UA needs to do what it takes to put this game on his arm. That’s easier said than done. Even with star running back Bijan Robinson no longer in Austin, there’s still a quality stable of ball-carriers, including five-star freshman CJ Baxter. He did get banged up against Rice in the opener, but it looks like he’ll be able to suit up against the Crimson Tide.

Lawson will play a big role in trying to slow that Texas run game, as well as Sanders in the passing game.

No. 4 – TE Amari Niblack

Niblack also made this list heading into last weekend, but he could play a pivotal role in helping Alabama secure a victory against Texas. Against MTSU, the 6-4, 233-pound pass-catcher hauled in both of his targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. With quarterback Jalen Milroe only attempting 18 passes in that matchup, game script didn’t require a large workload for Niblack. This weekend could be a different story though.

Obviously, the biggest difference with Milroe will come by way of designed runs.

I expect that to be an important factor on Saturday, but I also think he’s going to throw between 25-30 passes. Niblack is a big-boded safety blanket who could handle a larger share of the targets than we saw in the opener. From the limited that we’ve seen, he looks ready to become a featured piece in this offense. In some ways, I’m even starting to view him as “matchup-proof,” which means he needs to get consistent usage regardless of who’s lined up in front of him. I guess we’ll know a lot more about that this weekend.

Overall, Jaylan Ford is fantastic linebacker. He’s a sideline-to-sideline MIKE for Texas who excels at generating turnovers, but he isn’t always the best processor. There’s also a deep group of quality safeties in Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon, veterans Michael Taaffee and Jerrin Thompson and top-70 freshman Derek Williams. Like with Alabama and Sanders on the other side of the ball, I believe Texas will take more of a committee approach to cover Niblack. I also think taking that route can create a couple of favorable matchups for him.

In the past, Milroe has preferred to attack the middle of the field rather than throwing outside the numbers. I certainly think he’s more willing to throw to the sidelines nowadays, but in these big moments of big games, a guy like Niblack — or one of these other three tight ends — could play a critical role in moving the chains and providing comfort for Milroe. Plus, it’s always nice to have a towering option in the red area who commands a lot of attention. That presence makes things easier on the entire offense.

The post Alabama Football: Four players to watch vs. Texas appeared first on On3.

from On3 https://ift.tt/sUG2y1J