SEC continues to dominate recruiting even after latest realignment changes

College football and recruiting underwent another massive shift this summer with the latest wave of conference realignment, as Oregon and Washington jumped to the Big Ten, while fellow Pac-12 members Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah jumped ship for the Big 12. Their moves, along with those of UCLA and USC last summer, leaves the Pac-12 with just four schools in its membership beginning next summer.

The implications of the moves will be felt much more in the long-term than they are in the 2024 cycle, though with four months still remaining until the Early Signing Period, it will be intriguing to see what effect the changes have in this cycle.

While the deck chairs are being rearranged in other leagues, the SEC has opted to stand pat after adding Texas and Oklahoma last summer. The jump has done nothing to hurt those programs’ recruiting efforts, including Texas landing the No. 1 recruit in its own state, Colin Simmons, for the first time in a decade.

With the addition of the Sooners and Longhorns, the league’s recruiting dominance has only expanded — as has its footprint. 238 of the top 400 prospects in the On3 Industry Ranking play football in the SEC footprint (Texas, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee).

And as we kick off the high school football season in earnest this week, the SEC is again holding serve as the premier football league in the country, both on the trail and the field.

Nearly half of the committed blue-chip prospects are headed to the SEC

Each year, there are 400 blue-chip prospects (those who receive a four- or five-star ranking) in the On3 Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies. So far in the 2024 cycle, 326 of those roughly 400 are already committed.

And of those 326, 152 (47%) are currently pledged to SEC programs. That matches similar data at this time a year ago. By the end of the last cycle, the SEC signed 23 of the nation’s 32 five-stars and 184 of the 400 blue-chippers in total.

Given the number uncommitted prospects still available and the historical data on how many decommitments we will see between September and December, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the league surpass that.

Narrowing down even further, in the 2022 cycle, 54 of the top 100 prospects ultimately signed in the SEC. A year ago, that number went up to 62. With 80 of the nation’s top 100 in this cycle already pledged, 43 are to SEC schools. While it’ll likely be tough to top last year’s haul, the SEC is almost guaranteed to sign at least 50 percent of the nation’s top 100 recruits.

“Things like proximity to home, playing time, and opportunities off the field are important. But more than anything, recruits want to compete against the best, whether that’s in practice or on Saturdays and that’s what they see in the SEC,” On3 national recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman said. “They see the number of players who get drafted from these programs, and their belief is that’s the best way to get from playing on Fridays to playing on Sundays.”

Growing gap between the SEC, Big Ten and everyone else

And with the implosion of the Pac-12, what was once the Power 5 conferences will become the Power 4 by next summer. From a recruiting standpoint though, it’s becoming a Power 2 (SEC and Big Ten) and then everyone else.

While the Big Ten still trails behind the SEC in recruiting elite talent (it currently has 103 blue-chip commitments to the SEC’s 152), it is still very much in the ballpark. Things are much more dire for the ACC and new-look Big 12 though. The 14-team ACC has just 41 blue-chip commitments, and 31 of those belong to Clemson, Florida State and Miami.

The expanded Big 12, meanwhile, has just 30 blue-chip commitments. And of those 14 programs, newcomer UCF holds almost one-third of those. It is also the only league of the four without a five-star commitment.

And as the TV deals and revenue continue to grow in the Big Ten and SEC at a stunning pace, it will be harder and harder for the other two leagues to keep up.

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